Predictions / Football / Algeria. Ligue 2 / El Bayadh vs GC Mascara

Prediction Audit: El Bayadh vs GC Mascara Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

El Bayadh El Bayadh
Sep 26, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 49%
GC Mascara GC Mascara

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected El Bayadh at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 El Bayadh Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates GC Mascara considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: GC Mascara +12.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
El Bayadh 39.0% 50.5% -11.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 30.7% -1.1 pp Aligned
GC Mascara 31.5% 18.8% +12.7 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates GC Mascara's win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.8%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on GC Mascara.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on El Bayadh by 12.7 percentage points (26.3% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · El Bayadh 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · GC Mascara 31.5%
    • xG · El Bayadh 1.38 — GC Mascara 1.22
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · El Bayadh 1.76 · Draw 2.90 · GC Mascara 4.73
    • Implied 1X2 · El Bayadh 50.5% · Draw 30.7% · GC Mascara 18.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · El Bayadh 1.76 · Draw 2.90 · GC Mascara 4.73
    • Implied 1X2 · El Bayadh 50.5% · Draw 30.7% · GC Mascara 18.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 36/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10242547

Closing Odds 4.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · El Bayadh 0–0 GC Mascara
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 2
  • Fixture: El Bayadh vs GC Mascara
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): El Bayadh 1.38 — GC Mascara 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +14.2 pts · Est. EV: +24.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 2 Algeria. Ligue 2 Predictions