Predictions / Football / Mongolia. Premier League / Tuv Azarganuud vs Deren

Prediction Audit: Tuv Azarganuud vs Deren Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tuv Azarganuud Tuv Azarganuud
Oct 11, 2026 - 08:00
2 1.12
1 1.48
xG Accuracy: 69%
Deren Deren

The model missed the final outcome (Tuv Azarganuud win 2–1).

The model had projected Deren at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Deren Tuv Azarganuud ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Deren; match finished Tuv Azarganuud

Market lesson

The full-time result was Tuv Azarganuud win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 05, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Tuv Azarganuud 1.12 — Deren 1.48
  2. Oct 11, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Tuv Azarganuud win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13186932

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tuv Azarganuud win · Tuv Azarganuud 2–1 Deren
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Tuv Azarganuud vs Deren
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 43.9%
  • xG (showing): Tuv Azarganuud 1.12 — Deren 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tuv Azarganuud 7 7 0 0 21
2 Ulaanbaatar 6 5 1 0 16
3 Deren 7 4 2 1 14
4 Khovd 6 3 1 2 10
5 Hunters 6 3 0 3 9
6 Erchim 6 2 0 4 6
7 Khovd Western 6 1 0 5 3
8 Amtat FC 6 1 0 5 3
9 Ulaangom City 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ulaanbaatar 6 29 4 +25 16
2 Tuv Azarganuud 7 29 7 +22 21
3 Khovd 6 23 15 +8 10
4 Deren 7 21 9 +12 14
5 Hunters 6 20 15 +5 9
6 Khovd Western 6 13 27 -14 3
7 Erchim 6 9 19 -10 6
8 Amtat FC 6 5 31 -26 3
9 Ulaangom City 6 4 26 -22 0
Premier League Mongolia. Premier League Predictions