Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies / Poland U19 vs Switzerland U19

Prediction Audit: Poland U19 vs Switzerland U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Poland U19 Poland U19
Sep 25, 2026 - 09:30
0 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 64%
Switzerland U19 Switzerland U19

The model missed the final outcome (Switzerland U19 win 0–1).

The model had projected Poland U19 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Poland U19 Switzerland U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Switzerland U19 -4.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Poland U19 39.0% 38.8% +0.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 25.3% +4.2 pp Aligned
Switzerland U19 31.5% 35.9% -4.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Switzerland U19 win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Poland U19; match finished Switzerland U19

Market lesson

The full-time result was Switzerland U19 win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Poland U19 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Switzerland U19 31.5%
    • xG · Poland U19 1.38 — Switzerland U19 1.22
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Poland U19 2.36 · Draw 3.62 · Switzerland U19 2.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Poland U19 38.8% · Draw 25.3% · Switzerland U19 35.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Poland U19 2.36 · Draw 3.62 · Switzerland U19 2.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Poland U19 38.8% · Draw 25.3% · Switzerland U19 35.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Switzerland U19 win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 00:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9560711

Closing Odds 2.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Switzerland U19 win · Poland U19 0–1 Switzerland U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Friendlies
  • Fixture: Poland U19 vs Switzerland U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Poland U19 1.38 — Switzerland U19 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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