Prediction Audit: Nicaragua vs Costa Rica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nicaragua

Oct 02, 2026 - 02:00

0 1.31

3 1.29

xG Accuracy: 44%

Costa Rica

The model missed the final outcome (Costa Rica win 0–3).

The model had projected Nicaragua at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Nicaragua Costa Rica ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Nicaragua	35.6%	7.8%	+27.9 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	15.1%	+14.5 pp	Model Edge
Costa Rica	34.7%	77.1%	-42.4 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Costa Rica's win probability at 77.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 42.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Costa Rica win 0–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Nicaragua by 42.4 percentage points (78.0% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Oct 02, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nicaragua 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Costa Rica 34.7%
- xG · Nicaragua 1.31 — Costa Rica 1.29
Oct 02, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nicaragua 12.09 · Draw 6.21 · Costa Rica 1.22
- Implied 1X2 · Nicaragua 7.8% · Draw 15.1% · Costa Rica 77.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Oct 02, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nicaragua 12.09 · Draw 6.21 · Costa Rica 1.22
- Implied 1X2 · Nicaragua 7.8% · Draw 15.1% · Costa Rica 77.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Oct 02, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Costa Rica win · 0–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 28/100 · Low

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (42 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10964931

Closing Odds 1.22

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Costa Rica win · Nicaragua 0–3 Costa Rica

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Nicaragua; market prices Costa Rica instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Nicaragua 1.31 xG vs Costa Rica 1.29 → Nicaragua 35.6%
Market: Costa Rica ~7.8% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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