Prediction Audit: Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Antigua and Barbuda

Sep 26, 2026 - 23:00

5 1.24

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 24%

Anguilla

The model missed the final outcome (Antigua and Barbuda win 5–0).

The model had projected Anguilla at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Antigua and Barbuda	32.4%	83.4%	-51.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	10.5%	+19.1 pp	Model Edge
Anguilla	38.0%	6.1%	+31.9 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Antigua and Barbuda's win probability at 83.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 51.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Antigua and Barbuda win 5–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Anguilla by 51.0 percentage points (89.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 26, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Antigua and Barbuda 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Anguilla 38.0%
- xG · Antigua and Barbuda 1.24 — Anguilla 1.36
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Antigua and Barbuda 1.09 · Draw 8.64 · Anguilla 14.94
- Implied 1X2 · Antigua and Barbuda 83.4% · Draw 10.5% · Anguilla 6.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Antigua and Barbuda 1.09 · Draw 8.64 · Anguilla 14.94
- Implied 1X2 · Antigua and Barbuda 83.4% · Draw 10.5% · Anguilla 6.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Antigua and Barbuda win · 5–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 24/100 · Not reliable

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (51 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 6/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 03:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10121426

Closing Odds 1.09

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Antigua and Barbuda win · Antigua and Barbuda 5–0 Anguilla

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Anguilla; market prices Antigua and Barbuda instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Antigua and Barbuda 1.24 xG vs Anguilla 1.36 → Anguilla 38.0%
Market: Antigua and Barbuda ~6.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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