Predictions / Football / World. CONCACAF Nations League / Bermuda vs Guadeloupe

Prediction Audit: Bermuda vs Guadeloupe Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bermuda Bermuda
Sep 25, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe

The model missed the final outcome (Guadeloupe win 1–2).

The model had projected Bermuda at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bermuda Guadeloupe ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Bermuda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bermuda -7.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bermuda 35.2% 42.3% -7.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.6% +0.0 pp Aligned
Guadeloupe 35.2% 28.1% +7.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Bermuda's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Guadeloupe win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Bermuda. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Bermuda; match finished Guadeloupe

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bermuda by 7.1 percentage points (42.3% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bermuda 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Guadeloupe 35.2%
    • xG · Bermuda 1.30 — Guadeloupe 1.30
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bermuda 2.15 · Draw 3.07 · Guadeloupe 3.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Bermuda 42.3% · Draw 29.6% · Guadeloupe 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bermuda 2.15 · Draw 3.07 · Guadeloupe 3.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Bermuda 42.3% · Draw 29.6% · Guadeloupe 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Guadeloupe win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9579041

Closing Odds 2.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guadeloupe win · Bermuda 1–2 Guadeloupe
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: CONCACAF Nations League
  • Fixture: Bermuda vs Guadeloupe
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Bermuda 1.3 — Guadeloupe 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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