Predictions / Football / England. FA Trophy / Bury vs Gainsborough Trinity

Prediction Audit: Bury vs Gainsborough Trinity Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bury Bury
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 30%
Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity

The model missed the final outcome (Bury win 4–3).

The model had projected Gainsborough Trinity at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gainsborough Trinity Bury ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bury higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bury -25.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bury 33.8% 58.8% -25.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.5% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Gainsborough Trinity 36.6% 19.7% +16.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Bury's win probability at 58.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 25.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Bury win 4–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gainsborough Trinity by 25.0 percentage points (61.6% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:13 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bury 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Gainsborough Trinity 36.6%
    • xG · Bury 1.27 — Gainsborough Trinity 1.33
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bury 1.51 · Draw 4.12 · Gainsborough Trinity 4.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Bury 58.8% · Draw 21.5% · Gainsborough Trinity 19.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:13 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Bury 1.51 · Draw 4.12 · Gainsborough Trinity 4.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Bury 58.8% · Draw 21.5% · Gainsborough Trinity 19.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bury win · 4–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10107710

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bury win · Bury 4–3 Gainsborough Trinity
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FA Trophy
  • Fixture: Bury vs Gainsborough Trinity
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Bury 1.27 — Gainsborough Trinity 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.4% · Probability edge: +11.4 pts · Est. EV: +21.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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