Predictions / Football / World. Asian Games Women / Thailand W vs Chinese Taipei W

Prediction Audit: Thailand W vs Chinese Taipei W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Thailand W Thailand W
Sep 17, 2026 - 07:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Chinese Taipei W Chinese Taipei W

The model missed the final outcome (Chinese Taipei W win 0–1).

The model had projected Thailand W at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Thailand W Chinese Taipei W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Chinese Taipei W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Chinese Taipei W -15.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Thailand W 36.1% 24.2% +11.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 26.5% +3.1 pp Aligned
Chinese Taipei W 34.2% 49.3% -15.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Chinese Taipei W's win probability at 49.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Chinese Taipei W win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Chinese Taipei W than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Thailand W by 15.0 percentage points (51.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 17, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Thailand W 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Chinese Taipei W 34.2%
    • xG · Thailand W 1.32 — Chinese Taipei W 1.28
  2. Sep 17, 2026 · 06:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Thailand W 3.58 · Draw 3.27 · Chinese Taipei W 1.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Thailand W 24.2% · Draw 26.5% · Chinese Taipei W 49.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 17, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Thailand W 3.58 · Draw 3.27 · Chinese Taipei W 1.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Thailand W 24.2% · Draw 26.5% · Chinese Taipei W 49.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 17, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Chinese Taipei W win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8830883

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chinese Taipei W win · Thailand W 0–1 Chinese Taipei W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Asian Games Women
  • Fixture: Thailand W vs Chinese Taipei W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 07:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Thailand W 1.32 — Chinese Taipei W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Asian Games Women Asian Games Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Japan W 3 3 0 0 9
2 Chinese Taipei W 3 2 0 1 6
3 Vietnam W 3 0 1 2 1
4 Thailand W 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Japan W 3 20 0 +20 9
2 Chinese Taipei W 3 3 5 -2 6
3 Vietnam W 3 1 10 -9 1
4 Thailand W 3 0 9 -9 1
Asian Games Women World. Asian Games Women Predictions