The model missed the final outcome (Molynes United win 3–2).
The model had projected Treasure Beach at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Treasure Beach Molynes United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molynes United | 34.7% | 47.6% | -12.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 33.9% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Treasure Beach | 35.6% | 18.6% | +17.1 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Treasure Beach's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.6%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Molynes United win 3–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Treasure Beach.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Treasure Beach; match finished Molynes United
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Treasure Beach by 17.1 percentage points (18.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 22:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Molynes United 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Treasure Beach 35.6%
- xG · Molynes United 1.29 — Treasure Beach 1.31
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 21:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Molynes United 1.90 · Draw 2.67 · Treasure Beach 4.87
- Implied 1X2 · Molynes United 47.6% · Draw 33.9% · Treasure Beach 18.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 22:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Molynes United 1.90 · Draw 2.67 · Treasure Beach 4.87
- Implied 1X2 · Molynes United 47.6% · Draw 33.9% · Treasure Beach 18.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 22:05 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Molynes United win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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