Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Copa Paraguay / Atlético Tembetary vs Sportivo Iteno

Prediction Audit: Atlético Tembetary vs Sportivo Iteno Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atlético Tembetary Atlético Tembetary
Sep 24, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 57%
Sportivo Iteno Sportivo Iteno

The model missed the final outcome (Atlético Tembetary win 2–0).

The model had projected Sportivo Iteno at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sportivo Iteno Atlético Tembetary ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Atlético Tembetary higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Atlético Tembetary -30.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Atlético Tembetary 34.2% 64.9% -30.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.7% +9.0 pp Model Higher
Sportivo Iteno 36.1% 14.4% +21.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Atlético Tembetary's win probability at 64.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 30.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Atlético Tembetary win 2–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Sportivo Iteno; match finished Atlético Tembetary

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sportivo Iteno by 30.6 percentage points (66.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Atlético Tembetary 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Sportivo Iteno 36.1%
    • xG · Atlético Tembetary 1.28 — Sportivo Iteno 1.32
  2. Sep 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Atlético Tembetary 1.37 · Draw 4.30 · Sportivo Iteno 6.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Atlético Tembetary 64.9% · Draw 20.7% · Sportivo Iteno 14.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Atlético Tembetary 1.37 · Draw 4.30 · Sportivo Iteno 6.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Atlético Tembetary 64.9% · Draw 20.7% · Sportivo Iteno 14.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Atlético Tembetary win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9341919

Closing Odds 1.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atlético Tembetary win · Atlético Tembetary 2–0 Sportivo Iteno
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sportivo Iteno; market prices Atlético Tembetary instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Atlético Tembetary 1.28 xG vs Sportivo Iteno 1.32 → Sportivo Iteno 36.1%
  • Market: Atlético Tembetary ~14.4% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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