Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Copa Paraguay / 2 de Mayo vs SOL DE America

Prediction Audit: 2 de Mayo vs SOL DE America Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

2 de Mayo 2 de Mayo
Sep 22, 2026 - 21:30
0 1.23
4 1.37
xG Accuracy: 35%
SOL DE America SOL DE America

AI correctly predicted the SOL DE America win.

The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SOL DE America SOL DE America ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices 2 de Mayo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: 2 de Mayo -19.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
2 de Mayo 31.9% 51.4% -19.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.3% +4.2 pp Aligned
SOL DE America 38.5% 23.2% +15.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates 2 de Mayo's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 19.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (SOL DE America win 0–4).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about 2 de Mayo than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SOL DE America higher (58.0% vs model 38.5%, 19.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SOL DE America win 0–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · 2 de Mayo 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · SOL DE America 38.5%
    • xG · 2 de Mayo 1.23 — SOL DE America 1.37
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · 2 de Mayo 1.75 · Draw 3.45 · SOL DE America 3.75
    • Implied 1X2 · 2 de Mayo 50.7% · Draw 25.7% · SOL DE America 23.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · 2 de Mayo 1.75 · Draw 3.55 · SOL DE America 3.87
    • Implied 1X2 · 2 de Mayo 51.4% · Draw 25.3% · SOL DE America 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SOL DE America win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8993568

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SOL DE America win · 2 de Mayo 0–4 SOL DE America
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Copa Paraguay
  • Fixture: 2 de Mayo vs SOL DE America
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): 2 de Mayo 1.23 — SOL DE America 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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