The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Al Waab at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al Waab Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Waab | 38.0% | 27.9% | +10.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.7% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
| Lusail City | 32.4% | 47.4% | -15.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Lusail City's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Lusail City than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Al Waab; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al Waab by 15.0 percentage points (53.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Waab 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Lusail City 32.4%
- xG · Al Waab 1.36 — Lusail City 1.24
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Waab 3.24 · Draw 3.67 · Lusail City 1.91
- Implied 1X2 · Al Waab 27.9% · Draw 24.7% · Lusail City 47.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Waab 3.24 · Draw 3.67 · Lusail City 1.91
- Implied 1X2 · Al Waab 27.9% · Draw 24.7% · Lusail City 47.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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