Predictions / Football / Philippines. PFL / Stallion vs Maharlika

Prediction Audit: Stallion vs Maharlika Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stallion Stallion
Sep 27, 2026 - 12:30
0 1.48
2 1.12
xG Accuracy: 52%
Maharlika Maharlika

The model missed the final outcome (Maharlika win 0–2).

The model had projected Stallion at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stallion Maharlika ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Stallion; match finished Maharlika

Market lesson

The full-time result was Maharlika win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Stallion 1.48 — Maharlika 1.12
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Maharlika win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10088967

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maharlika win · Stallion 0–2 Maharlika
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: PFL
  • Fixture: Stallion vs Maharlika
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
  • xG (showing): Stallion 1.48 — Maharlika 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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