Predictions / Football / Bolivia. Nacional B / Atletico Juniors vs Wilstermann Cooperativa

Prediction Audit: Atletico Juniors vs Wilstermann Cooperativa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Atletico Juniors
Sep 13, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.36
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 42%
Wilstermann Cooperativa Wilstermann Cooperativa

The model missed the final outcome (Wilstermann Cooperativa win 0–3).

The model had projected Atletico Juniors at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atletico Juniors Wilstermann Cooperativa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wilstermann Cooperativa higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wilstermann Cooperativa -19.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Atletico Juniors 38.0% 26.5% +11.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.4% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Wilstermann Cooperativa 32.4% 52.1% -19.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Wilstermann Cooperativa's win probability at 52.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 19.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wilstermann Cooperativa win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Wilstermann Cooperativa than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Atletico Juniors; match finished Wilstermann Cooperativa

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Atletico Juniors by 19.7 percentage points (57.7% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Atletico Juniors 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Wilstermann Cooperativa 32.4%
    • xG · Atletico Juniors 1.36 — Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.24
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Atletico Juniors 3.40 · Draw 4.20 · Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Atletico Juniors 26.5% · Draw 21.4% · Wilstermann Cooperativa 52.1%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Atletico Juniors 3.40 · Draw 4.20 · Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Atletico Juniors 26.5% · Draw 21.4% · Wilstermann Cooperativa 52.1%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wilstermann Cooperativa win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8228412

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wilstermann Cooperativa win · Atletico Juniors 0–3 Wilstermann Cooperativa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Nacional B
  • Fixture: Atletico Juniors vs Wilstermann Cooperativa
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Atletico Juniors 1.36 — Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.1% · Probability edge: +20.8 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Nacional B Nacional B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 EM Huanuni 6 4 2 0 14
1 26 de Febrero 6 5 0 1 15
1 Wilstermann Cooperativa 6 3 1 2 10
1 Independiente CBBA 6 5 0 1 15
1 Virginia 6 4 2 0 14
1 CD IN San Juan FC 5 3 1 1 10
1 Primero Mayo 6 4 0 2 12
2 Atletico Sucre 6 3 0 3 9
2 Deportivo FATIC 6 3 1 2 10
2 Hiska Nacional 6 2 1 3 7
2 Mineros Potosi 6 3 1 2 10
2 Municipal Tiquipaya 6 3 2 1 11
2 Deportivo Tigres 5 2 2 1 8
2 Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 6 3 2 1 11
3 Club Universitario 6 2 2 2 8
4 Ingenieros 5 1 1 3 4
4 Atletico Juniors 6 0 0 6 0
4 Universitario Beni 5 0 0 5 0
4 Unión Tarija 5 2 0 3 6
4 CD Guadalajara 5 0 2 3 2
4 Universitario Tarija 6 1 1 4 4
4 Libertad 6 0 1 5 1
5 Chaco 5 2 0 3 6
6 San Martin de Yacuiba 5 2 0 3 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mineros Potosi 6 20 8 +12 10
2 Municipal Tiquipaya 6 15 4 +11 11
3 Atletico Sucre 6 15 8 +7 9
4 Wilstermann Cooperativa 6 15 12 +3 10
5 26 de Febrero 6 14 6 +8 15
6 EM Huanuni 6 13 4 +9 14
7 Deportivo FATIC 6 13 7 +6 10
8 Chaco 5 13 14 -1 6
9 Independiente CBBA 6 12 6 +6 15
10 CD IN San Juan FC 5 11 4 +7 10
11 Primero Mayo 6 11 10 +1 12
12 Virginia 6 10 3 +7 14
13 Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 6 10 7 +3 11
14 Hiska Nacional 6 10 15 -5 7
15 Deportivo Tigres 5 9 4 +5 8
16 Ingenieros 5 9 11 -2 4
17 Club Universitario 6 8 8 0 8
18 Unión Tarija 5 7 6 +1 6
19 Universitario Tarija 6 5 17 -12 4
20 Atletico Juniors 6 5 26 -21 0
21 CD Guadalajara 5 4 9 -5 2
22 San Martin de Yacuiba 5 2 7 -5 6
23 Universitario Beni 5 2 15 -13 0
24 Libertad 6 0 22 -22 1