Predictions / Football / New-Zealand. National League - National / Wellington Phoenix II vs Auckland United

Prediction Audit: Wellington Phoenix II vs Auckland United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wellington Phoenix II Wellington Phoenix II
Sep 26, 2026 - 02:30
1 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 85%
Auckland United Auckland United

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Wellington Phoenix II at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wellington Phoenix II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Auckland United higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Auckland United -25.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wellington Phoenix II 38.5% 21.1% +17.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.0% +8.6 pp Model Higher
Auckland United 31.9% 57.9% -25.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Auckland United's win probability at 57.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Wellington Phoenix II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wellington Phoenix II by 25.9 percentage points (64.4% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wellington Phoenix II 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Auckland United 31.9%
    • xG · Wellington Phoenix II 1.37 — Auckland United 1.23
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wellington Phoenix II 4.29 · Draw 4.34 · Auckland United 1.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Wellington Phoenix II 21.3% · Draw 21.1% · Auckland United 57.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wellington Phoenix II 4.33 · Draw 4.35 · Auckland United 1.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Wellington Phoenix II 21.1% · Draw 21.0% · Auckland United 57.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10076277

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Wellington Phoenix II 1–1 Auckland United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National League - National
  • Fixture: Wellington Phoenix II vs Auckland United
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 02:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Wellington Phoenix II 1.37 — Auckland United 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.2% · Probability edge: +20.6 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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