The model missed the final outcome (Torquay win 6–1).
The model had projected AFC Stoneham at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 AFC Stoneham Torquay ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torquay | 34.7% | 81.1% | -46.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 12.0% | +17.6 pp | Model Edge |
| AFC Stoneham | 35.6% | 6.9% | +28.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Torquay's win probability at 81.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 46.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Torquay win 6–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned AFC Stoneham; match finished Torquay
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on AFC Stoneham by 46.4 percentage points (82.0% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Torquay 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · AFC Stoneham 35.6%
- xG · Torquay 1.29 — AFC Stoneham 1.31
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Torquay 1.11 · Draw 7.50 · AFC Stoneham 13.00
- Implied 1X2 · Torquay 81.1% · Draw 12.0% · AFC Stoneham 6.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Torquay 1.11 · Draw 7.50 · AFC Stoneham 13.00
- Implied 1X2 · Torquay 81.1% · Draw 12.0% · AFC Stoneham 6.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Torquay win · 6–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (46 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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