Predictions / Football / China. League Two / Dalian Yingbo B vs Guangzhou Dandelion

Prediction Audit: Dalian Yingbo B vs Guangzhou Dandelion Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Dalian Yingbo B
Sep 19, 2026 - 08:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Guangzhou Dandelion Guangzhou Dandelion

AI correctly predicted the Dalian Yingbo B win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dalian Yingbo B Dalian Yingbo B ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Guangzhou Dandelion considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Guangzhou Dandelion +5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dalian Yingbo B 36.1% 38.3% -2.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 33.2% -3.6 pp Aligned
Guangzhou Dandelion 34.2% 28.4% +5.8 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Guangzhou Dandelion's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.4%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dalian Yingbo B win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Guangzhou Dandelion.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dalian Yingbo B more conservatively (30.3% vs model 36.1%, 5.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dalian Yingbo B win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dalian Yingbo B 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Guangzhou Dandelion 34.2%
    • xG · Dalian Yingbo B 1.32 — Guangzhou Dandelion 1.28
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Yingbo B 2.36 · Draw 2.72 · Guangzhou Dandelion 3.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Yingbo B 38.3% · Draw 33.2% · Guangzhou Dandelion 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Yingbo B 2.36 · Draw 2.72 · Guangzhou Dandelion 3.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Yingbo B 38.3% · Draw 33.2% · Guangzhou Dandelion 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dalian Yingbo B win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8654627

Closing Odds 3.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dalian Yingbo B win · Dalian Yingbo B 1–0 Guangzhou Dandelion
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League Two
  • Fixture: Dalian Yingbo B vs Guangzhou Dandelion
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Dalian Yingbo B 1.32 — Guangzhou Dandelion 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 36.9% · Probability edge: +11.3 pts · Est. EV: +26.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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