Predictions / Football / Chile. Copa Chile / Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido

Prediction Audit: Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cobreloa Cobreloa
Sep 22, 2026 - 23:30
1 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 79%
Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido

AI correctly predicted the Coquimbo Unido win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Coquimbo Unido -4.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cobreloa 31.9% 29.1% +2.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.6% +2.0 pp Aligned
Coquimbo Unido 38.5% 43.4% -4.9 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Coquimbo Unido win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Coquimbo Unido win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cobreloa 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Coquimbo Unido 38.5%
    • xG · Cobreloa 1.23 — Coquimbo Unido 1.37
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cobreloa 3.15 · Draw 3.32 · Coquimbo Unido 2.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Cobreloa 29.1% · Draw 27.6% · Coquimbo Unido 43.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cobreloa 3.15 · Draw 3.32 · Coquimbo Unido 2.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Cobreloa 29.1% · Draw 27.6% · Coquimbo Unido 43.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Coquimbo Unido win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 75/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 03:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8994176

Closing Odds 2.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Coquimbo Unido win · Cobreloa 1–2 Coquimbo Unido
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Copa Chile
  • Fixture: Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Cobreloa 1.23 — Coquimbo Unido 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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