Predictions / Football / Netherlands. KNVB Beker / Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn

Prediction Audit: Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zwaluwen Zwaluwen
Sep 23, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 64%
Purmersteijn Purmersteijn

The model missed the final outcome (Purmersteijn win 0–1).

The model had projected Zwaluwen at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Zwaluwen Purmersteijn ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +5.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zwaluwen 36.6% 38.2% -1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 23.7% +5.9 pp Model Higher
Purmersteijn 33.8% 38.1% -4.3 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.7%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Purmersteijn win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Zwaluwen; match finished Purmersteijn

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Zwaluwen by 5.9 percentage points (30.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zwaluwen 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Purmersteijn 33.8%
    • xG · Zwaluwen 1.33 — Purmersteijn 1.27
  2. Sep 23, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zwaluwen 2.34 · Draw 3.80 · Purmersteijn 2.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Zwaluwen 38.0% · Draw 23.4% · Purmersteijn 38.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Zwaluwen 2.35 · Draw 3.79 · Purmersteijn 2.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Zwaluwen 38.2% · Draw 23.7% · Purmersteijn 38.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Purmersteijn win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 70/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9167409

Closing Odds 3.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Purmersteijn win · Zwaluwen 0–1 Purmersteijn
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: KNVB Beker
  • Fixture: Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-23 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Zwaluwen 1.33 — Purmersteijn 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 33.6% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +31.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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