Predictions / Football / Netherlands. KNVB Beker / TOGB vs ROHDA Raalte

Prediction Audit: TOGB vs ROHDA Raalte Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TOGB TOGB
Sep 23, 2026 - 18:00
4 1.29
6 1.31
xG Accuracy: 13%
ROHDA Raalte ROHDA Raalte

AI correctly predicted the ROHDA Raalte win.

The match finished 4–6, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ROHDA Raalte ROHDA Raalte ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-6 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices ROHDA Raalte higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: ROHDA Raalte -15.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
TOGB 34.7% 30.0% +4.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 19.2% +10.4 pp Model Edge
ROHDA Raalte 35.6% 50.8% -15.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates ROHDA Raalte's win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (ROHDA Raalte win 4–6).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about ROHDA Raalte than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 10 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (10 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ROHDA Raalte higher (50.8% vs model 35.6%, 15.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ROHDA Raalte win 4–6).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · TOGB 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · ROHDA Raalte 35.6%
    • xG · TOGB 1.29 — ROHDA Raalte 1.31
  2. Sep 23, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · TOGB 3.13 · Draw 4.83 · ROHDA Raalte 1.67
    • Implied 1X2 · TOGB 28.4% · Draw 18.4% · ROHDA Raalte 53.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · TOGB 3.00 · Draw 4.68 · ROHDA Raalte 1.77
    • Implied 1X2 · TOGB 30.0% · Draw 19.2% · ROHDA Raalte 50.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ROHDA Raalte win · 4–6
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9167366

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ROHDA Raalte win · TOGB 4–6 ROHDA Raalte
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: KNVB Beker
  • Fixture: TOGB vs ROHDA Raalte
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-23 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): TOGB 1.29 — ROHDA Raalte 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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