AI correctly predicted the Dukagjini win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Dukagjini Dukagjini ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dukagjini | 37.1% | 31.4% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.8% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Malisheva | 33.3% | 38.8% | -5.5 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Dukagjini's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.4%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dukagjini win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Dukagjini.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dukagjini more conservatively (31.4% vs model 37.1%, 5.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dukagjini win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dukagjini 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Malisheva 33.4%
- xG · Dukagjini 1.34 — Malisheva 1.26
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dukagjini 2.83 · Draw 2.98 · Malisheva 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Dukagjini 31.4% · Draw 29.8% · Malisheva 38.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dukagjini 2.83 · Draw 2.98 · Malisheva 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Dukagjini 31.4% · Draw 29.8% · Malisheva 38.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dukagjini win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Superliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Malisheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Dukagjini | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Drita | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Gjilani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Llapi | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 7 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 16 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 6 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 18 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 4 | Drenica Skënderaj | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Ballkani | 7 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Dukagjini | 7 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Drita | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Llapi | 7 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 3 |
| 9 | Feronikeli | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 7 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 0 |
