The model missed the final outcome (Prishtina win 1–4).
The model had projected Drenica Skënderaj at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Drenica Skënderaj Prishtina ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drenica Skënderaj | 35.2% | 28.0% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.5% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Prishtina | 35.2% | 42.5% | -7.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Prishtina's win probability at 42.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Prishtina win 1–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Prishtina. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Drenica Skënderaj; match finished Prishtina
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Drenica Skënderaj by 7.3 percentage points (42.5% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Drenica Skënderaj 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Prishtina 35.2%
- xG · Drenica Skënderaj 1.30 — Prishtina 1.30
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Drenica Skënderaj 3.17 · Draw 3.01 · Prishtina 2.09
- Implied 1X2 · Drenica Skënderaj 28.0% · Draw 29.5% · Prishtina 42.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Drenica Skënderaj 3.17 · Draw 3.01 · Prishtina 2.09
- Implied 1X2 · Drenica Skënderaj 28.0% · Draw 29.5% · Prishtina 42.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Prishtina win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Superliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Malisheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Dukagjini | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Drita | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Gjilani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Llapi | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 7 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 16 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 6 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 18 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 4 | Drenica Skënderaj | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Ballkani | 7 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Dukagjini | 7 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Drita | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Llapi | 7 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 3 |
| 9 | Feronikeli | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 7 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 0 |
