The model missed the final outcome (Leon win 1–0).
The model had projected Club America at 39.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Club America Leon ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 36.8% | 30.5% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.2% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Club America | 39.2% | 44.4% | -5.1 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Leon's win probability at 36.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.5%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Leon win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Leon.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Club America by 6.3 percentage points (32.9% vs model 39.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leon 36.8% · Draw 24.0% · Club America 39.2%
- xG · Leon 1.80 — Club America 1.86
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leon 3.16 · Draw 3.82 · Club America 2.17
- Implied 1X2 · Leon 30.5% · Draw 25.2% · Club America 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leon 3.16 · Draw 3.82 · Club America 2.17
- Implied 1X2 · Leon 30.5% · Draw 25.2% · Club America 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Leon win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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