The model missed the final outcome (Eastern win 3–1).
The model had projected Kitchee at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Kitchee Eastern ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern | 33.8% | 20.8% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.0% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Kitchee | 36.6% | 49.2% | -12.6 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Eastern's win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.8%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Eastern win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Eastern.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kitchee by 13.0 percentage points (23.6% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Eastern 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Kitchee 36.6%
- xG · Eastern 1.27 — Kitchee 1.33
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 07:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Eastern 4.33 · Draw 3.00 · Kitchee 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · Eastern 20.8% · Draw 30.0% · Kitchee 49.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Eastern 4.33 · Draw 3.00 · Kitchee 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · Eastern 20.8% · Draw 30.0% · Kitchee 49.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Eastern win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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