AI correctly predicted the Managua win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Managua Managua ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter Ferretti | 31.5% | 23.8% | +7.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.8% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Managua | 39.0% | 50.4% | -11.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Managua's win probability at 50.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Managua win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Managua than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Managua higher (50.4% vs model 39.0%, 11.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Managua win 2–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Walter Ferretti 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Managua 39.0%
- xG · Walter Ferretti 1.22 — Managua 1.38
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Walter Ferretti 3.79 · Draw 3.50 · Managua 1.79
- Implied 1X2 · Walter Ferretti 23.8% · Draw 25.8% · Managua 50.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Walter Ferretti 3.79 · Draw 3.50 · Managua 1.79
- Implied 1X2 · Walter Ferretti 23.8% · Draw 25.8% · Managua 50.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Managua win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Walter Ferretti & Managua!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | San Marcos | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Matagalpa | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | San Marcos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | H&H Export | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Matagalpa | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 9 |
