The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Real Estelí at 48.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Real Estelí Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rancho Santana | 23.3% | 10.7% | +12.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.4% | 17.3% | +11.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Real Estelí | 48.3% | 72.0% | -23.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Real Estelí's win probability at 72.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.3%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Real Estelí; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Real Estelí by 23.8 percentage points (72.0% vs model 48.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rancho Santana 23.3% · Draw 28.4% · Real Estelí 48.3%
- xG · Rancho Santana 1.03 — Real Estelí 1.57
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rancho Santana 8.49 · Draw 5.26 · Real Estelí 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Rancho Santana 10.7% · Draw 17.3% · Real Estelí 72.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rancho Santana 8.49 · Draw 5.26 · Real Estelí 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Rancho Santana 10.7% · Draw 17.3% · Real Estelí 72.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | San Marcos | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Matagalpa | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | San Marcos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | H&H Export | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Matagalpa | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 9 |
