The model missed the final outcome (United Arab Emirates win 0–3).
The model had projected Bahrain at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bahrain United Arab Emirates ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahrain | 36.6% | 16.2% | +20.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| United Arab Emirates | 33.8% | 59.0% | -25.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates United Arab Emirates's win probability at 59.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 25.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was United Arab Emirates win 0–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Bahrain; match finished United Arab Emirates
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Bahrain by 25.2 percentage points (61.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bahrain 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · United Arab Emirates 33.8%
- xG · Bahrain 1.33 — United Arab Emirates 1.27
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bahrain 5.41 · Draw 3.68 · United Arab Emirates 1.67
- Implied 1X2 · Bahrain 17.5% · Draw 25.8% · United Arab Emirates 56.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bahrain 5.86 · Draw 3.82 · United Arab Emirates 1.61
- Implied 1X2 · Bahrain 16.2% · Draw 24.9% · United Arab Emirates 59.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result United Arab Emirates win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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