Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie C / Inter De Limeira vs Paysandu

Prediction Audit: Inter De Limeira vs Paysandu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Inter De Limeira Inter De Limeira
Sep 26, 2026 - 22:30
2 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Paysandu Paysandu

AI correctly predicted the Inter De Limeira win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Inter De Limeira Inter De Limeira ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Paysandu considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Paysandu +9.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Inter De Limeira 36.1% 43.6% -7.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 31.2% -1.5 pp Aligned
Paysandu 34.2% 25.2% +9.1 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Paysandu's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.2%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Inter De Limeira win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Paysandu.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Inter De Limeira more conservatively (27.0% vs model 36.1%, 9.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Inter De Limeira win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Inter De Limeira 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Paysandu 34.2%
    • xG · Inter De Limeira 1.32 — Paysandu 1.28
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Inter De Limeira 2.10 · Draw 2.94 · Paysandu 3.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Inter De Limeira 43.6% · Draw 31.2% · Paysandu 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Inter De Limeira 2.10 · Draw 2.94 · Paysandu 3.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Inter De Limeira 43.6% · Draw 31.2% · Paysandu 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Inter De Limeira win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 54/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10120729

Closing Odds 3.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Inter De Limeira win · Inter De Limeira 2–0 Paysandu
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie C
  • Fixture: Inter De Limeira vs Paysandu
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Inter De Limeira 1.32 — Paysandu 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 48.6% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +5.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C Serie C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 32
3 Ferroviária 19 8 6 5 30
4 Maringá 19 8 6 5 30
5 Floresta 19 8 6 5 30
6 Inter De Limeira 19 8 6 5 30
7 Paysandu 19 9 2 8 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 29
9 Ypiranga-RS 19 8 5 6 29
10 Guarani Campinas 19 7 7 5 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 28
12 Maranhão 19 7 6 6 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 26
14 Caxias 19 6 7 6 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 21
17 Barra 19 5 6 8 21
18 Anápolis 19 5 4 10 19
19 AO Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 17
20 Confiança 19 3 4 12 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guarani Campinas 19 34 24 +10 28
2 Maringá 19 32 30 +2 30
3 Botafogo PB 19 28 19 +9 33
4 Brusque 19 28 22 +6 32
5 Ypiranga-RS 19 27 24 +3 29
6 Paysandu 19 26 27 -1 29
7 Ferroviária 19 22 15 +7 30
8 Floresta 19 22 20 +2 30
9 Inter De Limeira 19 22 20 +2 30
10 Barra 19 21 21 0 21
11 Amazonas 19 21 23 -2 26
12 Santa Cruz 19 20 15 +5 29
13 Maranhão 19 19 18 +1 27
14 Figueirense 19 19 22 -3 28
15 Ituano 19 18 21 -3 22
16 Caxias 19 17 16 +1 25
17 Anápolis 19 17 22 -5 19
18 AO Itabaiana 19 14 27 -13 17
19 Volta Redonda 19 13 25 -12 21
20 Confiança 19 11 20 -9 13
Serie C Brazil. Serie C Predictions