Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie C / Floresta vs Santa Cruz

Prediction Audit: Floresta vs Santa Cruz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Floresta Floresta
Sep 26, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 85%
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Floresta at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Floresta Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Floresta 37.5% 34.7% +2.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 35.4% -5.8 pp Market Higher
Santa Cruz 32.9% 29.9% +3.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 35.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Floresta; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Floresta by 5.8 percentage points (43.3% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Floresta 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Santa Cruz 32.9%
    • xG · Floresta 1.35 — Santa Cruz 1.25
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Floresta 2.64 · Draw 2.59 · Santa Cruz 3.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Floresta 34.7% · Draw 35.4% · Santa Cruz 29.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Floresta 2.64 · Draw 2.59 · Santa Cruz 3.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Floresta 34.7% · Draw 35.4% · Santa Cruz 29.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 03:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10120009

Closing Odds 2.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Floresta 1–1 Santa Cruz
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie C
  • Fixture: Floresta vs Santa Cruz
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Floresta 1.35 — Santa Cruz 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 28.8% · Probability edge: +19.4 pts · Est. EV: +63.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C Serie C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 32
3 Ferroviária 19 8 6 5 30
4 Maringá 19 8 6 5 30
5 Floresta 19 8 6 5 30
6 Inter De Limeira 19 8 6 5 30
7 Paysandu 19 9 2 8 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 29
9 Ypiranga-RS 19 8 5 6 29
10 Guarani Campinas 19 7 7 5 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 28
12 Maranhão 19 7 6 6 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 26
14 Caxias 19 6 7 6 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 21
17 Barra 19 5 6 8 21
18 Anápolis 19 5 4 10 19
19 AO Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 17
20 Confiança 19 3 4 12 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guarani Campinas 19 34 24 +10 28
2 Maringá 19 32 30 +2 30
3 Botafogo PB 19 28 19 +9 33
4 Brusque 19 28 22 +6 32
5 Ypiranga-RS 19 27 24 +3 29
6 Paysandu 19 26 27 -1 29
7 Ferroviária 19 22 15 +7 30
8 Floresta 19 22 20 +2 30
9 Inter De Limeira 19 22 20 +2 30
10 Barra 19 21 21 0 21
11 Amazonas 19 21 23 -2 26
12 Santa Cruz 19 20 15 +5 29
13 Maranhão 19 19 18 +1 27
14 Figueirense 19 19 22 -3 28
15 Ituano 19 18 21 -3 22
16 Caxias 19 17 16 +1 25
17 Anápolis 19 17 22 -5 19
18 AO Itabaiana 19 14 27 -13 17
19 Volta Redonda 19 13 25 -12 21
20 Confiança 19 11 20 -9 13
Serie C Brazil. Serie C Predictions