Predictions / Football / Spain. Copa Federacion / Badalona II vs Sestao River

Prediction Audit: Badalona II vs Sestao River Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Badalona II Badalona II
Sep 09, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.30
3 1.30
xG Accuracy: 52%
Sestao River Sestao River

The model missed the final outcome (Sestao River win 2–3).

The model had projected Badalona II at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Badalona II Sestao River ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sestao River higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sestao River -10.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Badalona II 35.2% 25.8% +9.3 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.9% +0.8 pp Aligned
Sestao River 35.2% 45.3% -10.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sestao River's win probability at 45.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sestao River win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sestao River than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Badalona II; match finished Sestao River
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Badalona II by 10.2 percentage points (45.4% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 09, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Badalona II 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Sestao River 35.2%
    • xG · Badalona II 1.30 — Sestao River 1.30
  2. Sep 09, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Badalona II 3.44 · Draw 3.08 · Sestao River 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Badalona II 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · Sestao River 45.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 09, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Badalona II 3.44 · Draw 3.08 · Sestao River 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Badalona II 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · Sestao River 45.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sestao River win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 07:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6749726

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sestao River win · Badalona II 2–3 Sestao River
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Copa Federacion
  • Fixture: Badalona II vs Sestao River
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Badalona II 1.3 — Sestao River 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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