Prediction Audit: Cilegon United vs Deltras Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cilegon United

Sep 27, 2026 - 08:30

1 1.09

2 1.51

xG Accuracy: 85%

Deltras

AI correctly predicted the Deltras win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Deltras Deltras ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Cilegon United	25.8%	48.5%	-22.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	28.9%	25.0%	+3.9 pp	Aligned
Deltras	45.3%	26.5%	+18.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Cilegon United's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.8%, a difference of 22.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Deltras win 1–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Deltras attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Deltras higher (68.0% vs model 45.3%, 22.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Deltras win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 27, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cilegon United 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · Deltras 45.3%
- xG · Cilegon United 1.09 — Deltras 1.51
Sep 27, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cilegon United 1.83 · Draw 3.55 · Deltras 3.35
- Implied 1X2 · Cilegon United 48.5% · Draw 25.0% · Deltras 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cilegon United 1.83 · Draw 3.55 · Deltras 3.35
- Implied 1X2 · Cilegon United 48.5% · Draw 25.0% · Deltras 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Deltras win · 1–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (23 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10080603

Closing Odds 1.83

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Deltras win · Cilegon United 1–2 Deltras

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga 2
Fixture: Cilegon United vs Deltras
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 08:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · Away 45.3%
xG (showing): Cilegon United 1.09 — Deltras 1.51 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
Model: 46.7% · Implied: 36.3% · Probability edge: +10.4 pts · Est. EV: +22.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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