Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Liga 2 / Semen Padang vs PSIS Semarang

Prediction Audit: Semen Padang vs PSIS Semarang Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Semen Padang Semen Padang
Sep 20, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.39
1 1.21
xG Accuracy: 85%
PSIS Semarang PSIS Semarang

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Semen Padang at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Semen Padang Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Semen Padang higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Semen Padang -10.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Semen Padang 39.5% 50.2% -10.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 26.4% +3.2 pp Aligned
PSIS Semarang 31.0% 23.5% +7.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Semen Padang's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Semen Padang than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Semen Padang; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Semen Padang by 10.7 percentage points (50.2% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Semen Padang 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · PSIS Semarang 31.0%
    • xG · Semen Padang 1.39 — PSIS Semarang 1.21
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Semen Padang 1.77 · Draw 3.37 · PSIS Semarang 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Semen Padang 50.2% · Draw 26.4% · PSIS Semarang 23.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Semen Padang 1.77 · Draw 3.37 · PSIS Semarang 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Semen Padang 50.2% · Draw 26.4% · PSIS Semarang 23.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 46/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8667324

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Semen Padang 1–1 PSIS Semarang
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga 2
  • Fixture: Semen Padang vs PSIS Semarang
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Semen Padang 1.39 — PSIS Semarang 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.4% · Probability edge: +4.4 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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