The model missed the final outcome (Florgrade win 0–1).
The model had projected Camacha at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Camacha Florgrade ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camacha | 35.2% | 39.1% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.0% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Florgrade | 35.2% | 28.9% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Florgrade's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.9%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Florgrade win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Florgrade.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Camacha by 6.3 percentage points (28.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Camacha 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Florgrade 35.2%
- xG · Camacha 1.30 — Florgrade 1.30
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Camacha 1.92 · Draw 2.91 · Florgrade 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Camacha 46.3% · Draw 30.5% · Florgrade 23.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Camacha 2.30 · Draw 2.81 · Florgrade 3.11
- Implied 1X2 · Camacha 39.1% · Draw 32.0% · Florgrade 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Florgrade win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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