The model missed the final outcome (Persib Bandung win 0–1).
The model had projected FC Seoul at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 FC Seoul Persib Bandung ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 35.2% | 56.1% | -20.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.7% | +7.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Persib Bandung | 35.2% | 21.2% | +13.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates FC Seoul's win probability at 56.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 20.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Persib Bandung win 0–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned FC Seoul; match finished Persib Bandung
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FC Seoul by 20.9 percentage points (56.1% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FC Seoul 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Persib Bandung 35.2%
- xG · FC Seoul 1.30 — Persib Bandung 1.30
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FC Seoul 1.61 · Draw 3.98 · Persib Bandung 4.25
- Implied 1X2 · FC Seoul 56.1% · Draw 22.7% · Persib Bandung 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FC Seoul 1.61 · Draw 3.98 · Persib Bandung 4.25
- Implied 1X2 · FC Seoul 56.1% · Draw 22.7% · Persib Bandung 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Persib Bandung win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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AFC Cup — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Wahda FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Nasaf | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Khalidiya | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Kuwait | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Wahda FC | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al Kuwait | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 3 | Nasaf | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Khalidiya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
