AI correctly predicted the PSG U19 win.
The match finished 6–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 PSG U19 PSG U19 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 6-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG U19 | 45.3% | 82.9% | -37.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 10.6% | +18.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Slovan Bratislava U19 | 25.8% | 6.4% | +19.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates PSG U19's win probability at 82.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 37.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (PSG U19 win 6–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- PSG U19 attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced PSG U19 higher (82.9% vs model 45.3%, 37.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (PSG U19 win 6–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · PSG U19 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Slovan Bratislava U19 25.8%
- xG · PSG U19 1.51 — Slovan Bratislava U19 1.09
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · PSG U19 1.12 · Draw 7.89 · Slovan Bratislava U19 12.19
- Implied 1X2 · PSG U19 81.0% · Draw 11.5% · Slovan Bratislava U19 7.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · PSG U19 1.09 · Draw 8.51 · Slovan Bratislava U19 14.03
- Implied 1X2 · PSG U19 82.9% · Draw 10.6% · Slovan Bratislava U19 6.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result PSG U19 win · 6–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (38 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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