The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Japan U20 W at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Japan U20 W Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan U20 W | 40.4% | 46.5% | -6.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.6% | +2.8 pp | Aligned |
| United States U20 W | 30.1% | 26.9% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Japan U20 W's win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Japan U20 W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Japan U20 W by 6.0 percentage points (46.4% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Japan U20 W 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · United States U20 W 30.1%
- xG · Japan U20 W 1.41 — United States U20 W 1.19
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Japan U20 W 1.97 · Draw 3.44 · United States U20 W 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Japan U20 W 46.5% · Draw 26.6% · United States U20 W 26.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Japan U20 W 1.97 · Draw 3.44 · United States U20 W 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Japan U20 W 46.5% · Draw 26.6% · United States U20 W 26.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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World Cup - U20 - Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poland U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Argentina U20 W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benin U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina U20 W | 3 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Poland U20 W | 3 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benin U20 W | 3 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 1 |
