Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie D / ASA vs Uberlandia

Prediction Audit: ASA vs Uberlandia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ASA ASA
Sep 06, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 54%
Uberlandia Uberlandia

The model missed the final outcome (Uberlandia win 0–2).

The model had projected ASA at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ASA Uberlandia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Uberlandia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Uberlandia +7.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ASA 40.9% 44.2% -3.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 33.4% -4.0 pp Aligned
Uberlandia 29.7% 22.4% +7.3 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Uberlandia's win probability at 29.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.4%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Uberlandia win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Uberlandia.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on ASA by 7.3 percentage points (33.6% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ASA 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Uberlandia 29.6%
    • xG · ASA 1.42 — Uberlandia 1.18
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ASA 2.05 · Draw 2.71 · Uberlandia 4.04
    • Implied 1X2 · ASA 44.2% · Draw 33.4% · Uberlandia 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · ASA 2.05 · Draw 2.71 · Uberlandia 4.04
    • Implied 1X2 · ASA 44.2% · Draw 33.4% · Uberlandia 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Uberlandia win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 63/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6466180

Closing Odds 4.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Uberlandia win · ASA 0–2 Uberlandia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D
  • Fixture: ASA vs Uberlandia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): ASA 1.42 — Uberlandia 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +13.9 pts · Est. EV: +35.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Serie D Matches Track ASA Next Match Prediction Track Uberlandia Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for ASA & Uberlandia!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5