The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Al Hussein at 45.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Al Hussein Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabab Al Ordon | 25.4% | 12.6% | +12.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.8% | 21.0% | +7.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Al Hussein | 45.8% | 66.4% | -20.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Al Hussein's win probability at 66.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 20.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Al Hussein; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al Hussein by 20.6 percentage points (66.4% vs model 45.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shabab Al Ordon 25.4% · Draw 28.8% · Al Hussein 45.8%
- xG · Shabab Al Ordon 1.08 — Al Hussein 1.52
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shabab Al Ordon 7.17 · Draw 4.31 · Al Hussein 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · Shabab Al Ordon 12.6% · Draw 21.0% · Al Hussein 66.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Shabab Al Ordon 7.17 · Draw 4.31 · Al Hussein 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · Shabab Al Ordon 12.6% · Draw 21.0% · Al Hussein 66.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Ramtha | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Jazeera | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Al Salt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Buqa'a | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ordon | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Doqarah | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Wihdat | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 9 | Al Hussein | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Jazeera | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 5 |
| 3 | Shabab Al Ordon | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Al Ramtha | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Salt | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Al Hussein | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 |
| 7 | Doqarah | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Buqa'a | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Arabi | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Al Wihdat | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
