The model missed the final outcome (Juticalpa win 3–2).
The model had projected CD Marathon at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 CD Marathon Juticalpa ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juticalpa | 28.4% | 14.9% | +13.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.3% | 21.9% | +7.4 pp | Model Higher |
| CD Marathon | 42.4% | 63.2% | -20.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates CD Marathon's win probability at 63.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Juticalpa win 3–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned CD Marathon; match finished Juticalpa
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on CD Marathon by 20.8 percentage points (63.2% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Juticalpa 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · CD Marathon 42.4%
- xG · Juticalpa 1.15 — CD Marathon 1.45
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Juticalpa 6.00 · Draw 4.10 · CD Marathon 1.42
- Implied 1X2 · Juticalpa 14.9% · Draw 21.9% · CD Marathon 63.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Juticalpa 6.00 · Draw 4.10 · CD Marathon 1.42
- Implied 1X2 · Juticalpa 14.9% · Draw 21.9% · CD Marathon 63.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Juticalpa win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Nacional — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Génesis | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Olancho | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Atletico Independiente | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | Atlético Choloma | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Juticalpa | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Platense FC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 8 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 17 |
| 2 | CD Marathon | 8 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 17 |
| 3 | Real Espana | 8 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 5 | CD Motagua | 8 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Génesis | 8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Juticalpa | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 6 |
| 8 | Atletico Independiente | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 8 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Olancho | 8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Platense FC | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 5 |
