The model missed the final outcome (Atlético Choloma win 2–0).
The model had projected Estrella Roja at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Estrella Roja Atlético Choloma ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Choloma | 30.1% | 34.3% | -4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 27.0% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Estrella Roja | 40.4% | 38.7% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Atlético Choloma win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Estrella Roja; match finished Atlético Choloma
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Atlético Choloma win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atlético Choloma 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Estrella Roja 40.5%
- xG · Atlético Choloma 1.19 — Estrella Roja 1.41
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Choloma 2.45 · Draw 3.30 · Estrella Roja 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Choloma 36.5% · Draw 27.1% · Estrella Roja 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Choloma 2.60 · Draw 3.30 · Estrella Roja 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Choloma 34.3% · Draw 27.0% · Estrella Roja 38.7%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atlético Choloma win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Nacional — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Génesis | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Olancho | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Atletico Independiente | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | Atlético Choloma | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Juticalpa | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Platense FC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 8 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 17 |
| 2 | CD Marathon | 8 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 17 |
| 3 | Real Espana | 8 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 5 | CD Motagua | 8 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Génesis | 8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Juticalpa | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 6 |
| 8 | Atletico Independiente | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 8 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Olancho | 8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Platense FC | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 5 |
