AI correctly predicted the Estrela do Norte win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Estrela do Norte Estrela do Norte ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela do Norte | 36.1% | 58.8% | -22.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.0% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Audax São Mateus | 34.2% | 18.1% | +16.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Estrela do Norte's win probability at 58.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 22.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Estrela do Norte win 3–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Estrela do Norte higher (58.8% vs model 36.1%, 22.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Estrela do Norte win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Estrela do Norte 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Audax São Mateus 34.2%
- xG · Estrela do Norte 1.32 — Audax São Mateus 1.28
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Estrela do Norte 1.53 · Draw 3.91 · Audax São Mateus 4.96
- Implied 1X2 · Estrela do Norte 58.8% · Draw 23.0% · Audax São Mateus 18.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Estrela do Norte 1.53 · Draw 3.91 · Audax São Mateus 4.96
- Implied 1X2 · Estrela do Norte 58.8% · Draw 23.0% · Audax São Mateus 18.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Estrela do Norte win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Capixaba B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrela do Norte | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Linhares | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Rive | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Audax São Mateus | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | GEL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Doze | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Tupy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Sport Brasil ES | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | CTE Colatina | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 10 | Pinheiros | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linhares | 8 | 22 | 2 | +20 | 18 |
| 2 | Estrela do Norte | 8 | 21 | 1 | +20 | 22 |
| 3 | Audax São Mateus | 8 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 4 | Rive | 8 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 | GEL | 8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Sport Brasil ES | 8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | Doze | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | Tupy | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Pinheiros | 8 | 5 | 27 | -22 | 0 |
| 10 | CTE Colatina | 8 | 1 | 29 | -28 | 1 |
