AI correctly predicted the Atenas win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Atenas Atenas ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atenas | 38.5% | 33.5% | +5.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.8% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| CA River Plate | 31.9% | 34.7% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Atenas's win probability at 38.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.5%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Atenas win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atenas.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Atenas more conservatively (33.5% vs model 38.5%, 5.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Atenas win 3–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atenas 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · CA River Plate 31.9%
- xG · Atenas 1.37 — CA River Plate 1.23
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atenas 2.74 · Draw 2.88 · CA River Plate 2.64
- Implied 1X2 · Atenas 33.5% · Draw 31.8% · CA River Plate 34.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Atenas 2.77 · Draw 2.92 · CA River Plate 2.67
- Implied 1X2 · Atenas 33.5% · Draw 31.8% · CA River Plate 34.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atenas win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Fenix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenix | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Oriental | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerrito | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Rentistas | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | CA River Plate | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | La Luz | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Paysandu | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Miramar | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
