Prediction Audit: Vítkovice vs Líšeň Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vítkovice

Sep 16, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.30

3 1.30

xG Accuracy: 44%

Líšeň

The model missed the final outcome (Líšeň win 0–3).

The model had projected Vítkovice at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Vítkovice Líšeň ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Vítkovice	35.2%	17.8%	+17.4 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	18.4%	+11.3 pp	Model Edge
Líšeň	35.2%	63.8%	-28.7 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Líšeň's win probability at 63.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 28.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Líšeň win 0–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Vítkovice; match finished Líšeň

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vítkovice by 28.7 percentage points (63.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vítkovice 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Líšeň 35.2%
- xG · Vítkovice 1.30 — Líšeň 1.30
Sep 16, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vítkovice 5.06 · Draw 4.90 · Líšeň 1.41
- Implied 1X2 · Vítkovice 17.8% · Draw 18.4% · Líšeň 63.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vítkovice 5.06 · Draw 4.90 · Líšeň 1.41
- Implied 1X2 · Vítkovice 17.8% · Draw 18.4% · Líšeň 63.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Líšeň win · 0–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (29 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 08:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7886163

Closing Odds 1.41

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Líšeň win · Vítkovice 0–3 Líšeň

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Cup
Fixture: Vítkovice vs Líšeň
Kickoff: 2026-09-16 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Vítkovice 1.3 — Líšeň 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.2% · Probability edge: +20.6 pts · Est. EV: +65.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Cup Matches Track Vítkovice Next Match Prediction Track Líšeň Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Vítkovice & Líšeň!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions