Prediction Audit: Kladno vs Baník Ostrava Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kladno

Sep 23, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.36

2 1.24

xG Accuracy: 85%

Baník Ostrava

The model missed the final outcome (Baník Ostrava win 1–2).

The model had projected Kladno at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Kladno Baník Ostrava ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Kladno	38.0%	18.1%	+19.9 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	20.4%	+9.2 pp	Model Higher
Baník Ostrava	32.4%	61.5%	-29.1 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Baník Ostrava's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 29.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Baník Ostrava win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kladno by 29.1 percentage points (67.1% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kladno 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Baník Ostrava 32.4%
- xG · Kladno 1.36 — Baník Ostrava 1.24
Sep 23, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kladno 5.13 · Draw 4.54 · Baník Ostrava 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Kladno 18.1% · Draw 20.4% · Baník Ostrava 61.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kladno 5.13 · Draw 4.54 · Baník Ostrava 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Kladno 18.1% · Draw 20.4% · Baník Ostrava 61.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Baník Ostrava win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (29 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9164332

Closing Odds 1.51

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Baník Ostrava win · Kladno 1–2 Baník Ostrava

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Cup
Fixture: Kladno vs Baník Ostrava
Kickoff: 2026-09-23 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Kladno 1.36 — Baník Ostrava 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.9% · Probability edge: +16.9 pts · Est. EV: +50.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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