AI correctly predicted the El Nacional win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 El Nacional El Nacional ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Nacional | 43.8% | 63.1% | -19.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 21.6% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
| 22 de Julio | 27.1% | 15.3% | +11.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates El Nacional's win probability at 63.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 19.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (El Nacional win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about El Nacional than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- El Nacional attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.12)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced El Nacional higher (63.0% vs model 43.8%, 19.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (El Nacional win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 19:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · El Nacional 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · 22 de Julio 27.1%
- xG · El Nacional 1.48 — 22 de Julio 1.12
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · El Nacional 1.45 · Draw 4.23 · 22 de Julio 5.97
- Implied 1X2 · El Nacional 63.1% · Draw 21.6% · 22 de Julio 15.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · El Nacional 1.45 · Draw 4.23 · 22 de Julio 5.97
- Implied 1X2 · El Nacional 63.1% · Draw 21.6% · 22 de Julio 15.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result El Nacional win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Pro Serie B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 | Cuniburo | 22 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 31 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 22 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 31 |
| 5 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 37 |
| 6 | Cumbayá | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 34 |
| 8 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 29 |
| 9 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 28 |
| 10 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | El Nacional | 22 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 12 |
| 12 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 15 |
