Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola Pro / Wydad AC vs Widad Témara

Prediction Audit: Wydad AC vs Widad Témara Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wydad AC Wydad AC
Sep 26, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.35
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 56%
Widad Témara Widad Témara

The model missed the final outcome (Widad Témara win 1–3).

The model had projected Wydad AC at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Wydad AC Widad Témara ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wydad AC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wydad AC -22.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wydad AC 37.5% 59.9% -22.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.0% +1.6 pp Aligned
Widad Témara 32.9% 12.1% +20.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Wydad AC's win probability at 59.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 22.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Widad Témara win 1–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Wydad AC; match finished Widad Témara
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wydad AC by 22.3 percentage points (59.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wydad AC 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Widad Témara 32.9%
    • xG · Wydad AC 1.35 — Widad Témara 1.25
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wydad AC 1.55 · Draw 3.31 · Widad Témara 7.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Wydad AC 59.9% · Draw 28.0% · Widad Témara 12.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wydad AC 1.55 · Draw 3.31 · Widad Témara 7.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Wydad AC 59.9% · Draw 28.0% · Widad Témara 12.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Widad Témara win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9339784

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Widad Témara win · Wydad AC 1–3 Widad Témara
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Botola Pro
  • Fixture: Wydad AC vs Widad Témara
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Wydad AC 1.35 — Widad Témara 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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