Prediction Audit: Difaa EL Jadida vs CODM Meknès Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Difaa EL Jadida

Sep 26, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.32

6 1.28

xG Accuracy: 23%

CODM Meknès

The model missed the final outcome (CODM Meknès win 2–6).

The model had projected Difaa EL Jadida at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Difaa EL Jadida CODM Meknès ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-6 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Difaa EL Jadida	36.1%	37.8%	-1.7 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	34.6%	-5.0 pp	Aligned
CODM Meknès	34.2%	27.6%	+6.7 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates CODM Meknès's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.6%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CODM Meknès win 2–6.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CODM Meknès.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Difaa EL Jadida; match finished CODM Meknès
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Difaa EL Jadida by 6.7 percentage points (29.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 26, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Difaa EL Jadida 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · CODM Meknès 34.2%
- xG · Difaa EL Jadida 1.32 — CODM Meknès 1.28
Sep 26, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Difaa EL Jadida 2.42 · Draw 2.64 · CODM Meknès 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · Difaa EL Jadida 37.8% · Draw 34.6% · CODM Meknès 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Difaa EL Jadida 2.42 · Draw 2.64 · CODM Meknès 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · Difaa EL Jadida 37.8% · Draw 34.6% · CODM Meknès 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result CODM Meknès win · 2–6
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 66/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9339533

Closing Odds 3.32

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result CODM Meknès win · Difaa EL Jadida 2–6 CODM Meknès

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Botola Pro
Fixture: Difaa EL Jadida vs CODM Meknès
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Difaa EL Jadida 1.32 — CODM Meknès 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.4% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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