Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / 3 de Noviembre vs SOL DE America

Prediction Audit: 3 de Noviembre vs SOL DE America Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

3 de Noviembre 3 de Noviembre
Sep 08, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
SOL DE America SOL DE America

The model missed the final outcome (3 de Noviembre win 1–0).

The model had projected SOL DE America at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SOL DE America 3 de Noviembre ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SOL DE America higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SOL DE America -11.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
3 de Noviembre 32.9% 26.4% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.8% +4.8 pp Aligned
SOL DE America 37.5% 48.8% -11.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates SOL DE America's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was 3 de Noviembre win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about SOL DE America than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned SOL DE America; match finished 3 de Noviembre

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SOL DE America by 11.3 percentage points (48.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 08, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · 3 de Noviembre 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · SOL DE America 37.6%
    • xG · 3 de Noviembre 1.25 — SOL DE America 1.35
  2. Sep 08, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · 3 de Noviembre 3.41 · Draw 3.62 · SOL DE America 1.84
    • Implied 1X2 · 3 de Noviembre 26.4% · Draw 24.8% · SOL DE America 48.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 08, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · 3 de Noviembre 3.41 · Draw 3.62 · SOL DE America 1.84
    • Implied 1X2 · 3 de Noviembre 26.4% · Draw 24.8% · SOL DE America 48.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 08, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result 3 de Noviembre win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 43/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 02, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6578646

Closing Odds 1.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result 3 de Noviembre win · 3 de Noviembre 1–0 SOL DE America
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: 3 de Noviembre vs SOL DE America
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-08 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): 3 de Noviembre 1.25 — SOL DE America 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 26 16 3 7 51
2 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
3 12 de Junio VH 26 14 7 5 49
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 11 5 10 38
7 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
8 Paraguari AC 25 10 5 10 35
9 Resistencia 26 8 8 10 32
10 Fernando De La Mora 25 8 7 10 31
11 Atlético Tembetary 25 8 6 11 30
12 Deportivo Capiata 26 6 10 10 28
13 3 de Noviembre 26 6 8 12 26
14 Guairena FC 25 6 7 12 25
15 Tacuary 26 4 12 10 24
16 Encarnación 26 6 4 16 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 26 45 25 +20 51
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
5 12 de Junio VH 26 35 26 +9 49
6 Paraguari AC 25 34 33 +1 35
7 Atlético Tembetary 25 34 39 -5 30
8 3 de Noviembre 26 33 39 -6 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 31 38 -7 38
11 Deportivo Capiata 26 30 36 -6 28
12 Resistencia 26 28 32 -4 32
13 Fernando De La Mora 25 28 35 -7 31
14 Tacuary 26 28 40 -12 24
15 Encarnación 26 25 36 -11 22
16 Guairena FC 25 22 33 -11 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions