Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Independiente F.b.c. vs Fernando De La Mora

Prediction Audit: Independiente F.b.c. vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Independiente F.b.c. Independiente F.b.c.
Sep 04, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 49%
Fernando De La Mora Fernando De La Mora

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Independiente F.b.c. at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Independiente F.b.c. Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Independiente F.b.c. -3.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Independiente F.b.c. 39.5% 42.9% -3.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 28.6% +0.9 pp Aligned
Fernando De La Mora 31.0% 28.5% +2.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Independiente F.b.c.; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Independiente F.b.c. 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Fernando De La Mora 31.0%
    • xG · Independiente F.b.c. 1.39 — Fernando De La Mora 1.21
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Independiente F.b.c. 2.07 · Draw 3.11 · Fernando De La Mora 3.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Independiente F.b.c. 42.9% · Draw 28.6% · Fernando De La Mora 28.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Independiente F.b.c. 2.07 · Draw 3.11 · Fernando De La Mora 3.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Independiente F.b.c. 42.9% · Draw 28.6% · Fernando De La Mora 28.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 82/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6143970

Closing Odds 2.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Independiente F.b.c. 0–0 Fernando De La Mora
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Independiente F.b.c. vs Fernando De La Mora
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Independiente F.b.c. 1.39 — Fernando De La Mora 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 26 16 3 7 51
2 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
3 12 de Junio VH 26 14 7 5 49
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 11 6 10 39
7 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
8 Paraguari AC 26 10 5 11 35
9 Resistencia 27 9 8 10 35
10 Fernando De La Mora 26 9 7 10 34
11 Atlético Tembetary 26 9 6 11 33
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 6 11 10 29
13 3 de Noviembre 26 6 8 12 26
14 Guairena FC 26 6 7 13 25
15 Tacuary 26 4 12 10 24
16 Encarnación 27 6 4 17 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 26 45 25 +20 51
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
5 Atlético Tembetary 26 36 40 -4 33
6 12 de Junio VH 26 35 26 +9 49
7 Paraguari AC 26 35 35 0 35
8 3 de Noviembre 26 33 39 -6 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 32 39 -7 39
11 Resistencia 27 31 32 -1 35
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 31 37 -6 29
13 Fernando De La Mora 26 30 35 -5 34
14 Tacuary 26 28 40 -12 24
15 Encarnación 27 25 39 -14 22
16 Guairena FC 26 22 35 -13 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions