The model missed the final outcome (Newcastle Town win 1–2).
The model had projected Cleethorpes Town at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Cleethorpes Town Newcastle Town ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleethorpes Town | 38.5% | 70.3% | -31.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 17.9% | +11.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Newcastle Town | 31.9% | 11.9% | +20.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Cleethorpes Town's win probability at 70.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 31.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Newcastle Town win 1–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Cleethorpes Town; match finished Newcastle Town
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cleethorpes Town by 31.8 percentage points (70.3% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:21 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cleethorpes Town 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Newcastle Town 31.9%
- xG · Cleethorpes Town 1.37 — Newcastle Town 1.23
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cleethorpes Town 1.27 · Draw 5.00 · Newcastle Town 7.50
- Implied 1X2 · Cleethorpes Town 70.3% · Draw 17.9% · Newcastle Town 11.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:21 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cleethorpes Town 1.27 · Draw 5.00 · Newcastle Town 7.50
- Implied 1X2 · Cleethorpes Town 70.3% · Draw 17.9% · Newcastle Town 11.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Newcastle Town win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (32 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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